UNITED STATES / ECONOMIC MONITOR0/30 refreshed

National Variables

Small-chart timeline Years show the longer pattern; the bold segment shows the latest 3 months.

What the current numbers are telling us

Interpretation of the latest available observations; periods differ across indicators.

Real GDP · Q2 2026

2.2% falling vs. 3 months earlier

Real output grew during the quarter. Growth slowed relative to the previous quarter; slower expansion is not contraction.

Stronger real output generally supports hiring, income and business revenue; slower growth can make employers more cautious about expansion.

CPI inflation · Sep 2026

3.7% rising vs. 3 months earlier

Prices in this basket are 3.7% above a year earlier. The annual inflation rate has increased, adding pressure to purchasing power.

Faster price increases stretch household budgets, especially when pay does not keep up, and can make inflation harder for policymakers to bring down.

Mortgage rate · Oct 22, 2026

7.32% rising vs. 3 months earlier

This reading is historically high within its own 10-year history, rather than an all-time assessment.

Higher mortgage rates raise payments for new borrowers and can deter owners with cheaper existing loans from moving. At 7.32%, a new $100,000, 30-year fixed-rate loan has about $687 in monthly principal and interest, compared with $635 at the earlier 6.55% rate. This illustration excludes fees, taxes and insurance.

6 readings stand out against their own history.

See whether related indicators tell a consistent story.

Context

Card color identifies the topic↗ Rising↘ FallingRising inflation, unemployment, gas prices and fed funds are also red.

Select any indicator for its significance, trajectory and effects. Small-chart dates and values show the actual observation window; the timeline selector does not change the historical ranking window. pp means percentage points; changes use unrounded data. Recent trend compares with about three months earlier, or one month for consumer confidence and gasoline. Steady keeps the topic color. Historical ranks require a full series; published snapshots are labeled separately.